The latest US census data revealed that Greenville is now the fourth fastest growing city in the US. Even for those of us (such as myself) who have been bullish on the Upstate for some time, this came as a shock.
Since the data was released, I’ve been contemplating the implications and significance of this growth. Here are a few thoughts.
Maybe all those condos aren’t such a bad idea.
It seems that there is no end to the amount of high-density housing going up around us. Especially if you go to Greenville’s downtown, it looks like nearly every block has new condos being developed on it.
I’ve heard a lot of concerns about this influx of condos in the Upstate. Some have even compared it to 2005-2007 when homebuilders went crazy on speculative development before the recession completely took them by surprise. When the market crashed, those developers had a major problem on their hands because they had tons of new houses on the market and/or being built that no one could afford. It took years for demand to finally catch back up to the supply these developers had created in the Upstate (and throughout the US), and this had a crippling effect on the local housing market.
Maybe, however, the population growth in the Upstate means that more housing (and more condos) do in fact need to be built. As a REALTOR® I’m torn on the issue because I see how low our housing inventory is, but I also don’t see the type of demand for condos (particularly the luxury ones that keep popping up) as I do for detached houses. Will the population growth bring an influx of Millennials looking for the more urban lifestyle that condos offer? Only time will tell.
Greenville needs more/better infrastructure.
I like to be optimistic on this blog, but let’s put on the pessimist’s hat for a moment. Few would deny that Greenville’s infrastructure is not prepared for the 6% per year population growth we are experiencing. Roads need to be fixed, expanded, and supplemented by new roads. Public transportation needs to be figured out. Shopping needs to expand to somewhere (anywhere!) besides Woodruff Road. And that’s just the tip of the ice berg.
Greenville doesn’t want to be a big city. That’s clearly the way Mayor White, City Council, and most of the general populace feel, but what if Greenville is destined to be a big city? I’ve seen what it looks like when population growth takes a city by surprise. Look no further than Austin, TX, which has double-stacked highways that are both bumper-to-bumper throughout the day. What are we going to do to make sure this doesn’t happen to us? It’s nice that they’re planning parks and renovations to County Square, but how are those things going to help us get in front of the looming infrastructure apocolypse?
Home values and rental prices will continue to increase.
This is common sense, but it deserves mention (I am a real estate agent, after all). Real estate, like any business, is driven by supply and demand. When there is more supply than demand, prices go down. When there is more demand than supply, prices go up.
When there is a population boom, there is also a real estate demand boom. I own some apartments in Berea that, when I bought them two years ago, were renting in the $600s. My property manager told me this week that she just had another similar unit in that complex rent for $1,100!
Is a market correction that puts a damper on the economy in the works? I would say some type of economic correction (hopefully just a small one) is likely, but as long as people still want to move to Greenville, nothing short of an all-out recession would be enough to stop real estate prices from going up.
Residential areas will look different in five years.
A few years ago no one wanted to live in San Souci (at least that’s what it seemed like). Now San Souci is one of the hottest neighborhoods in Greenville and has experienced insane appreciation of home prices.
Without doubt, there will be plenty of other neighborhoods that are off the radar now that will become extremely popular in the next five years. Many real estate investors believe that the Village of West Greenville is one such place. I suspect that areas of Mauldin and Taylors are set for revitalization as well in the upcoming years. Those who are able to successfully predict now where the local real estate demand is going to shift to are going to be the ones that make a killing a few years from now.
A future major tourist attraction seems inevitable.
This is pure speculation, but I believe that it’s only a matter of time before a major tourist attraction (such as a theme park or a major professional sports team) comes to the Upstate. It’s a fascinating thing to consider because Greenville has intentionally kept these types of attractions out of the Upstate in an effort to keep Greenville from becoming just another big metropolis. But what happens if Six Flags decides to drop several millions of dollars on real estate in Spartanburg County? Would the county reject it solely on the basis of principle? I doubt it.
Greenville is the ultimate day trip city, by which I mean there are tons of great day trips to take from Greenville. The Biltmore Estate, Carowinds, the Riverbanks Zoo, Linville Gorge, even Myrtle Beach and the rest of the coast are easily accessible within a day’s drive of Greenville. But what if it wasn’t a day’s drive? What if we had a major attraction right at our doorstep?
I’m not saying it would be a good thing, but it does seem inevitable. Greenville is growing up, and although there are a lot of awesome things happening here, we may have to accept some growing pains with the growth.
A very good and insightful article.